Hmmm. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads.
[Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are riding horses down a path - they pause]
Rosencrantz: [to Guildenstern] Umm, uh...
[Guildenstern rides away, and Rosencrantz follows. Rosencrantz spots a gold coin on the ground]
Rosencrantz: [to horse] Whoa - whoa, whoa.
[Gets off horse and starts flipping the coin]
Rosencrantz: Hmmm. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads.
[Guildenstern grabs the coin, checks both sides, then tosses it back to Rosencrantz]
Rosencrantz: Heads.
[Guildenstern pulls a coin out of his own pocket and flips it]
Rosencrantz: Bet? Heads I win?
[Guildenstern looks at coin and tosses it to Rosencrantz]
Rosencrantz: Again? Heads.
There comes a point where it's not a coincidence any more. It's a variant of the Gambler's fallacy, I suppose: given a series of two possible outcomes, other things being equal, they should happen more or less equally often.
In "Rosencrantz & Guildenstern Are Dead", the chance outcomes -- coin tosses -- come out heads dozens of times in a row.
Rosencrantz: [flips coin which lands as 'heads'] 78 in a row. A new record, I imagine.
Guildenstern: Is that what you imagine? A new record?
Rosencrantz: Well...
Guildenstern: No questions? Not a flicker of doubt?
Rosencrantz: I could be wrong.
In the play / movie, this seems to be saying that Fate governs things, or at least it does in a literary context.
[Rosencrantz has been flipping coins, and all of them are coming down heads]
Guildenstern: Consider: One, probability is a facter which operates *within* natural forces. Two, probability is *not* operating as a factor. Three, we are now held within un-, sub- or super-natural forces. Discuss.
Rosencrantz: What?
But what does it mean if it's happening in real life?
- In November 2000, the US had an election that for all purposes was a draw between Bush (R) and Gore (D).
- In November 2004, it happened again, nearly the same way between Bush (R) and Kerry (D).
- In the spring of 2008, it happened a third time, in the primaries between Obama & Clinton (D), and we may be primed for it to happen again this November.
As outside observers have noted, it really doesn't make any sense how we can get away with this for so long. "A house divided against itself" and all that. But there it is.
- On one hand, half the country sees Obama as an inspiring & uplifting figure that can lead us out of the darkness of the past few years, and half sees him as a frightening ideologue that will lead the country to ruin and turn our friends & enemies against us.
- On the other hand, half the country sees McCain (and even more so, Palin) as down to earth types that will lead us back to greatness, and half see them as frightening ideologues that will lead the country to ruin and turn our friends & enemies against us.
And each side seems nervously, anxiously convinced that the other is completely wrong. Watching the RNC convention last night, it was the same old crap they've been saying for decades now -- ""liberals are scary", "Democrats want to tax us all into oblivion", "Democrats are for big government", rah! rah! rah! This all in spite of the fact that these days, the Democrats appear to be the party of fiscal responsibility, while during the Bush years, the federal government has grown, the deficit has swollen, and the economy has been in the tank. Meanwhile, I'm sure, my Republican friends recoiled in horror at things the Democrats said at their own convention last week.
How can a country come to be so evenly and deeply divided for so long and continue to function as if everything is okay? I don't get it.
Not that I'm really shedding any new light here, I'm afraid. Just pondering.
Guildenstern: Why can't you ever say anything original? Why do you always just repeat everything? I'm sick of making the running all the time!
Rosencrantz: I can't think of anything original! I'm only good in support.
[Rosencrantz begins to cry - Guildenstern puts an arm round him]
Guildenstern: It's all right, I'll see we're all right.
Rosencrantz: [sobbing] But we've got nothing!
Guildenstern: We've got a letter.
Has it always been this way, and I'm just catching on now? Does the coin toss always keep spinning on edge, neither heads nor tails, forever?
Guildenstern: What's the first thing you remember?
Rosencrantz: [thinks] No, it's no good. It was a long time ago.
Guildenstern: No, you don't take my meaning. What's the first thing you remember after all the things you've forgotten?
Rosencrantz: Oh, I see... I've forgotten the question.
"Rosencrantz & Guildenstern Are Dead" quotes via IMDB.
